Market Report: AGV & AMR Robotics 2022

Strong growth in 1h22 followed by muted demand in 2h22. Supply chain issues impacting delivery. Early market inflection signals

AGV& AMR robots

• This report focuses on mobile robots used for transporting payloads/goods a-b (storage solutions are covered in other stiq reports)
• The agv & amr robotics sector is highly fragmented with 400+ vendors globally
• Applications for agvs & amrs vary from moving light 400g pcbs to very heavy 65 tonne steel coils

Market growth

• Interviews suggested high sales levels in 1h22
• Demand relaxed somewhat in 2h22, impacted mainly by russia’s war in ukraine and high inflation rates affecting automation plans and budgets
• Growth appeared to be a combination of new business and postponed projects from 2020/2021

Supply chain problems

• Supply chain disruption from 2021 deteriorated in 2022 and became more persistent in 2h22 with extensive lead times and increased prices
• Backlogs expanded as most agv & amr vendors were unable to deliver
• The primary issue was supply of components and a few vendors decided to design out components to alleviate supply chain disruption; however, it was unclear if this solved delivery times

Early inflection signals

• There were early positive signals that efforts in ‘customer educational activity’ had begun to transform into wider sales and raise the potential for short to medium term market inflection
• However, strained new venture capital flows and the continued absence of an agv & amr system integrator layer, combined with market fragmentation, could expand time to inflection

Market trends

• Two key trends were: component suppliers consolidating functionality and agnostic fleet managers evolving into wider execution systems
• Multiple component suppliers consolidated up & downstream functionality, such as lidar vendors adding slam software and chip manufacturers providing motherboards
• A number of agv & amr vendors also broadened their product ranges with international ambitions
• The partnering trend continued with a focus on additional and international sales channels

Market outlook

• The primary impression from 60+ interviews was huge uncertainty for 2023 with the war in ukraine, inflation and interest rates mentioned frequently
• Recessionary pressures could subdue demand in the short term and, depending on the severity, could potentially affect the market in the medium term
• However, high employment levels continued to limit customers ability to attract staff and automation remained a prioritised option
• Continued supply chain problems could potentially lead to customers exploring less flexible options

AGV & AMR key success factors

• Senior management buy-in was viewed as a key critical success factor for agv & amr projects
• Equally important was proper customer market research (incl. Reading stiq reports), knowledge & cross functional project teams, and the ability to properly identify and assess all the it systems affected and involved in a potential project