Market Report: AGV & AMR Robotics 2023

Post Pandemic Growth Slowing. US Remained Strong. Chinese Competition at Breaking Point. Global Orders in 2024 May Be Challenging

Definition: AGV & AMR Robots

• Focus on mobile robots used to transport payloads (10Kg – tens of tonnes) between A-B, deployed in factories, production facilities, and warehouses (excluding ecommerce applications — covered in G2P report)

2023 Market Growth Positive

• 52% of stakeholders indicated a positive 2023 and that a return to normal was to be expected after ‘crazy growth’ in 2022
• Key market drivers included the automotive sector (switch to electric vehicles), F&B, and the US market
• Growth in Europe had largely dissipated in 2022

China Largely Commoditised

• The Chinese market grew in 2023, but price competition had turned hyper-competitive with domestic prices for AGV & AMRs at historical lows
• Vendors with money left in the bank targeted a 2024 launch in the US market, partnering in the EU

Supply Chain Problems Abated

• Lead times returned to near normal while prices for components (and robots) increased about 10-30% in NA and EU during Covid

Inhibitors for Faster Growth

• The overall AGV & AMR market has experienced up to c.10% annual growth in the last decade
• But there were multiple inhibitors for faster growth:
• Of 100 incoming inquiries, only 1 customer was fully aware of the need to change processes and workflows to accommodate robots; sector marketing thought to contribute to this
• A highly fragmented landscape with 500+ vendors = difficult for customers to select the right partner/s
• Some customization in nearly every project
• Brownfield accounted for the majority of sales, but was often complicated due to frequent re-engineering requirements, moving infrastructure, fixing floors
• Lack of established AGV/AMR system integrators

Growing Software Importance

• AGV & AMR software innovation led by Agnostic Fleet Managers, catalyzed by interop standards
• A “frenzy” of Agnostic Fleet Manager selection in 2023 had led to AGV & AMR project delays
• FMS evolving into “Intralogistics Operating Systems” with growing consulting opportunities/practice
• Other SW trends included 3D visualization tools as a pre-sales tool, VSLAM for RTLS, etc.

Market Outlook 2024 + Beyond

• Stakeholder suggested it had become increasingly difficult to apply any forecasting methodologies
• The US market remained very strong, but elections in 2024 could bring additional volatility
• Multiple international vendors aimed to establish, consolidate and/or grow their US presence in 2024
• Increased offers of RaaS and/or Rental appeared to be early attempts at stimulating growth
• Continued M&A expected as some businesses may run out of cash and could be acquired; interviews suggested growing signs of distress in the sector

Recommendations to Buyers

• Senior management buy-in — always
• Know your processes and workflows intimately and how these may be affected by a mobile robot
• Start small and learn from a few vehicles or go larger with throughput/performance bonds